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April 21, 2005
Decision Sciences Primer
At Kellogg, Decision Sciences (DS) was essentially statistics, but due to the mastery of professors like Scott McKeon, DS was something more.
His mantra "Verbalize, Visualize, Mathematize" sums up the approach well. First, understand in words what you are trying to solve for. Then try to picture it. Then you get into the equations for it.
The typical Statistics class is replete with mathematize. Typical questions would be something like "Determine the confidence intervals blah blah blah." The typical student answer is certainly mathematizing, but where are the first two - verbalize and visualize? Why are they important?
Verbalize means not just solving an equation for the sake of solving for the equation. It means you understand something of why. Instead of "Use Bayes rule to determine the conditional probability of A given B occured," have something a bit more real.
In Scott's class, you do actually learn this, but it's not dry, to say the least. Instead, you're introduced, verbally, through a game of chance; say, The Monty Hall Problem. Confronted with a real life situation that you can actually imagine and tussle with makes a big difference. Getting the class to participate in an argument about what "should" be the best way to score the big prize, is verbalize in action.
Visualizing is another important concept. If I flip this coin, what's the probability that it ends up heads? Well, is it a weighted coin? What about the probability of a multicolor patchwork misshapen bean bag? What's the probability that a particular color comes up? Should you just divide by the number colors? If there are five colors does that make a 20% chance for each?
Another aspect of visualization is the output of chance events. If you ask Excel to generate random numbers between 0 and 1, and you do it a 1000 times, what will the graph look like (for Excel pros, what would an X Y Scatter look like)? Plot the random rolls of dice on a graph, what will that look like (say the dice aren't loaded)? Do these pictures look the same?
Mathematize is taking these first two and looking at the science underlying them. In the Monty Hall example, you can either use Bayes' theorem or do some tree flipping, but without getting into the math or tree, rest assured that there's a mathematize answer ready for you. In the plots of the chance events, these shapes (visualizes) conform to equations about their nature (whether rectangular or Gaussian).
But, as the Way of Go has shown, this approach should not be limited to DS. Verbalize, Visualize, and Mathematize can be used elsewhere. For instance, say you want to do good in the world. While most people might be comfortable verbalizing and visualizing, could you really mathematize?
One of the ways I did good in the world, IMHO, was to read Kellogg candidate applications. Admitting or denying candidates into the next class is a chore many a Kelloggian has performed and it's practically thankless work. That said, there's certainly a "do good in the world" aspect to it.
One way I mathematized in reviewing applications, especially where I was having problems admitting or denying the applicant, would be to flip a coin. Yes, it's true. I'd flip a coin to recommend to admit or deny an applicant and I highly recommend the technique for people who want to really understand their inner psychology and get at the right answer.
The power of the technique is strong, but it can only be used once effectively for a particular decision... in my experience. Therefore, if you have some big decision ahead of you, try it. I wont give away how to use the flip unless you click to read on. First step is to flip. In your mind verbalize "Heads - Choice A (or whatever one route is); Tails - Choice B (everything else or another choice)." Flip the coin and agree that you'll do whatever fate decides. Probably not how Kellogg would approve of my decision making technique, but terribly effective and quick! Read on for more...
Did you really do it? If not, stop reading and work on a real decision and flip. If you have, please read on...
The result of the flip gives you the answer, but not necessarily the one that came up on the coin. When I was stuck reviewing an applicant and I'd flip a coin, if the coin said "Admit" and I AGREED, then it's as if fate agreed with what I felt internally. It gave me license to Admit, per se.
If I DIDN'T agree with the coin, but wanted to flip again or argue with the result, then that part of you deep down comes out and you get to see it. It's as if you don't want fate to have the final say.
Agreeing or disagreeing with the coin makes all the difference. Use this for most any big and real decision. "Should I buy this house?" Flip comes up Buy, and you are glad that fate has decided on Buy, then go ahead (given you've done all the other requisite due diligence (important caveat)). Flip comes up Buy, and you want to flip again, it might be time to reconsider.
Posted by wayofgo at April 21, 2005 01:37 AM
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